endrylim. / election notebook

MELAKA / STATE ELECTION 2026

Melaka votes.
Read the shifts.

The headline is who wins.
The question is what moved.

Explore the candidates, trace the electoral history and test the assumptions behind a changing vote. An independent notebook for reading beyond the seat count.

Explore the 28 seats ↘Test a scenario ↗

Data checked 2 November 2026 · Historical facts and hypothetical scenarios are labelled separately.

THE ASSEMBLY / 28 SEATS

15seats for a simple majority
BN 21PH 5PN 2

2021 result shown. No 2026 results declared here.

31 OCT Nominations closed10 NOV Early voting14 NOV Polling dayDates and sources ↗

A / THE CONTEST NOW

Same assembly.
A different ballot.

Read party labels as they appear on the ballot. The 2021 coalition map is not a complete description of the 2026 contest.

28state seats
79nominated candidates
687,697registered electors in the snapshot
15seats for a simple majority
PH 24 candidatesBN 23 candidatesBERSAMA 16 candidatesBERSATU 7 candidatesPN 5 candidatesBEBAS 3 candidatesPUTRA 1 candidates

11 contests have two candidates, 11 have three and six have four. Source: ElectionData.MY candidate records, checked against BERNAMA’s report of the SPR nomination briefing.

B / THE LONG VIEW

A seat landslide.
A closer vote.

In 2021, BN took 75% of the seats with 38.4% of valid votes. A majority in the assembly and a majority of the vote are different things.

Votes and seats, 2021

Historical result
BN38.4% votes · 75.0% seats
PH35.8% votes · 17.9% seats
PN24.3% votes · 7.1% seats
Others1.5% votes · 0.0% seats

Thin bar: vote share · Thick bar: seat share

Vote share uses valid ballots. Seat share uses all 28 seats. Minor parties and independents are grouped only in this summary.

THREE THINGS TO WATCH

Turnout. Margins.
Who is on the ballot.

Statewide vote totals do not determine the government directly. Constituency winners do. The distribution of support matters as much as its overall level.

The 2021 records show 65.8% turnout. Votes that were never cast do not reveal a party preference. A turnout assumption needs to be stated, not smuggled into a forecast.

6 of the 28 seats were decided by less than five percentage points in 2021. Small shifts can change seats, but only if those shifts reach the constituencies that matter.

Explore the arithmetic ↓

Every completed state election

1959 to 2021 · 15 elections
195920 seats196420 seats196920 seats197420 seats197820 seats198220 seats198620 seats199020 seats199525 seats199925 seats200428 seats200828 seats201328 seats201828 seats202128 seats
Open the complete election summary table
All completed Melaka state general elections
YearElectionSeatsSeat distributionValid votes recordedTurnout in contested seats
1959SE-0120PERIKATAN 2072,30078.5%
1964SE-0220PERIKATAN 18 · SF 2102,18684.3%
1969SE-0320PERIKATAN 15 · DAP 4 · GERAKAN 1103,57877.2%
1974SE-0420BN 16 · DAP 4106,62477.6%
1978SE-0520BN 16 · DAP 4124,82977.5%
1982SE-0620BN 18 · DAP 2140,13776.5%
1986SE-0720BN 17 · DAP 3170,66372.9%
1990SE-0820BN 17 · DAP 3198,08977.5%
1995SE-0925BN 22 · DAP 3213,04977.1%
1999SE-1025BN 21 · DAP 4233,79978.0%
2004SE-1128BN 26 · DAP 2265,08078.9%
2008SE-1228BN 23 · DAP 5288,13079.9%
2013SE-1328BN 21 · DAP 6 · PAS 1377,45587.5%
2018SE-1428BN 13 · PKR 15413,15685.0%
2021SE-1528BN 21 · PN 2 · PH 5319,68965.8%
BN 38.4% votes · 21 seatsPH 35.8% votes · 5 seatsPN 24.3% votes · 2 seatsBEBAS 1.3% votes · 0 seatsPUTRA 0.1% votes · 0 seatsIMAN 0.1% votes · 0 seats
2021 SE-15 · 28 constituencies · 2021-11-20
ConstituencyWinnerVotesMajorityMarginTurnout
N.01 Kuala LinggiBNRosli bin Abdullah6,9681,83626.3 pp65.3%
N.02 Tanjung BidaraBNAb Rauf bin Yusoh7,2433645.0 pp72.5%
N.03 Ayer LimauBNHameed bin Mytheen Kunju Basheer7,3891,08514.7 pp66.7%
N.04 LenduBNSulaiman bin Md Ali7,0233,10444.2 pp67.3%
N.05 Taboh NaningBNZulkiflee bin Mohd Zin5,5391,82532.9 pp65.4%
N.06 RembiaBNMuhammad Jailani bin Khamis10,1528608.5 pp65.7%
N.07 GadekBNShanmugam a/l V.Pitchay (VP Shan)7,6775597.3 pp62.2%
N.08 Machap JayaBNNgwe Hee Sem7,99693811.7 pp65.3%
N.09 Durian TunggalBNZahari bin Abd Kalil9,0335596.2 pp69.6%
N.10 AsahanBNFairul Nizam bin Roslan9,9682,99330.0 pp65.2%
N.11 Sungai UdangPNMohd Aleef bin Yusof15,5545303.4 pp70.2%
N.12 Pantai KundorBNTuminah binti Kadi @ Mohd Hashim9,8928278.4 pp65.1%
N.13 Paya RumputBNRais bin Yasin17,2116293.7 pp66.2%
N.14 KelebangBNLim Ban Hong13,0648766.7 pp66.3%
N.15 Pengkalan BatuBNKalsom binti Noordin13,5281311.0 pp66.5%
N.16 Ayer KerohPHKerk Chee Yee15,7735,62435.7 pp61.9%
N.17 Bukit KatilPHAdly bin Zahari16,3771,0576.5 pp65.9%
N.18 Ayer MolekBNRahmad bin Mariman12,4302,80222.5 pp71.3%
N.19 KesidangPHSeah Shoo Chin (Allex Seah)22,42510,23745.6 pp61.1%
N.20 Kota LaksamanaPHLow Chee Leong16,71211,49468.8 pp58.9%
N.21 DuyongBNMohd Noor Helmy bin Abdul Halem12,2112001.6 pp68.2%
N.22 Bandar HilirPHLeng Chau Yen11,1977,77869.5 pp57.5%
N.23 Telok MasBNAbdul Razak bin Abdul Rahman14,0722,07614.8 pp69.4%
N.24 BembanPNMohd Yadzil bin Yaakub12,1693282.7 pp66.8%
N.25 RimBNKhaidhirah binti Abu Zahar8,9101,32714.9 pp66.4%
N.26 SerkamBNZaidi bin Attan11,631790.7 pp74.2%
N.27 MerlimauBNMuhamad Akmal bin Saleh9,6403,24833.7 pp69.8%
N.28 Sungai RambaiBNSiti Faizah binti Abdul Azis7,9051,13714.4 pp68.5%

Boundaries, seat names, the franchise and alliances changed across these elections. Historical seat codes are shown as recorded. They are not treated as a continuous constituency series. Federal results do not elect the state assembly. Uncontested seats have no observed vote share or turnout.

C / KNOW THE CONSTITUENCIES

Twenty eight contests.
Look closer.

Select a constituency to see its 2021 result, the current candidates and the electorate profile. The grid gives every seat equal space; it is not a geographic map.

How to explore Search a seat, filter by its 2021 winner or focus on close margins. Click a tile to open its profile.

28 constituencies

CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK

N.01 Kuala Linggi

BN2021 winner
1,8362021 majority
65.3%2021 turnout

2021 candidate votes

Rosli bin Abdullah BN3,554
Julasapiyah bin Kassim PH1,718
Kamisan bin Palil BEBAS51
Aziah binti Mohd Sa'ad PN1,645

On the 2026 ballot

  • Muhammad Mukhlisul Mubin bin Julasapiyah PH
  • Nur Farhana binti Hamzah BERSAMA
  • Rosli bin Abdullah BN

Electorate composition 2022 data

Malay71.4%
Chinese21.2%
Others5.4%
Indian1.5%
Bumi Sabah0.3%
Bumi Sarawak0.2%

Ages 18 to 29: 26.8% · Female: 50.8%. Composition is not voting preference.

View the source profile ↗

D / WHO IS CONTESTING

The names.
The actual ballot.

All 79 candidates in the 31 October nomination snapshot. Coalition labels and component parties are shown separately. Names follow the dataset rather than shortened campaign names.

Download candidate list ↓

79 candidates across 28 constituencies

N.01 Kuala Linggi

15,483 registered electors

  • PHAMANAH
    Muhammad Mukhlisul Mubin bin Julasapiyah
  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Nur Farhana binti Hamzah
  • BNUMNO
    Rosli bin Abdullah

N.02 Tanjung Bidara

15,003 registered electors

  • PHPKR
    Mohd Yunazri bin Mustamiri
  • BNUMNO
    Ab Rauf bin Yusoh

N.03 Ayer Limau

15,379 registered electors

  • PHPKR
    Mohd Jaini bin Dimon
  • BNUMNO
    Hameed bin Mytheen Kunju Basheer

N.04 Lendu

15,043 registered electors

  • BNUMNO
    Abdul Hakim bin Abdul Wahid
  • BERSATUBERSATU
    Nazri bin Ramli

N.05 Taboh Naning

11,299 registered electors

  • PHAMANAH
    Junainah binti Sahat (Ajue)
  • BNUMNO
    Zulkiflee bin Mohd Zin

N.06 Rembia

23,291 registered electors

  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Muhamed Aman Akil bin Abdul Talib
  • BNUMNO
    Ahmad Norazril bin Abd Aziz
  • PHPKR
    Mohd Khuzaire bin Mohd Kamal Kannan

N.07 Gadek

16,617 registered electors

  • PHDAP
    Jegasilan a/l Kungamboo (Jegan)
  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Laveen a/l Balaprabhakaran
  • PUTRAPUTRA
    Laila Norinda binti Maon
  • BNMIC
    Nadarajah a/l Sellappa

N.08 Machap Jaya

16,030 registered electors

  • BNMCA
    Ngwe Hee Sem
  • PHPKR
    Ginie Lim Siew Lin
  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Prasanth Kumar a/l Brakasam

N.09 Durian Tunggal

21,181 registered electors

  • BNUMNO
    Mustafa bin Musa
  • PHAMANAH
    Ashraf Mukhlis bin Minghat

N.10 Asahan

20,217 registered electors

  • BNUMNO
    Fairul Nizam bin Roslan
  • PHPKR
    Denesh a/l V Palasubramaniam

N.11 Sungai Udang

29,692 registered electors

  • BERSATUBERSATU
    Abdullah bin Mahadi
  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Mohd Ridzuan bin Abdul Rahman
  • BNUMNO
    Rais bin Yasin

N.12 Pantai Kundor

20,855 registered electors

  • BERSATUBERSATU
    Asmah binti Samat
  • BNUMNO
    Tuminah binti Kadi @ Mohd Hashim

N.13 Paya Rumput

46,521 registered electors

  • PNPAS
    Rafie bin Ahmad
  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Abdul Rashid bin Abu Bakar (Rashid Karimi)
  • PHPKR
    Azman bin Abidin

N.14 Kelebang

27,339 registered electors

  • PHPKR
    Farzana Hayani binti Mohd Nasir (Nana)
  • BERSATUBERSATU
    Mohamad Ali bin Mohamad
  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Young Jie Yu
  • BNMCA
    Lim Ban Hong

N.15 Pengkalan Batu

25,948 registered electors

  • BNUMNO
    Siti Aisyah binti Mahmood
  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Goh Han Koon
  • PHDAP
    Jason Tze-Xi Nathan
  • BERSATUBERSATU
    Norhizam bin Hassan Baktee

N.16 Ayer Keroh

38,252 registered electors

  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Muhammad Muhaimin Lau bin Abdullah (Alan Lau)
  • PHDAP
    Kerk Chee Yee
  • PNGERAKAN
    Michael Gan Peng Lam
  • BERSATUBERSATU
    Mohd Hamnaim bin Mohamad

N.17 Bukit Katil

35,359 registered electors

  • PHAMANAH
    Adly bin Zahari
  • PNPAS
    Muhammad Ridzuan bin Mohd Sarif
  • BEBASBEBAS
    Abu Bakar bin Sabudin
  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Aliza binti Che Amran

N.18 Ayer Molek

24,614 registered electors

  • BNUMNO
    Mohd Ridhwan bin Mohd Ali
  • PHPKR
    Muhamad Hakimin bin Mokhtar

N.19 Kesidang

54,910 registered electors

  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Bryan Kek Kit Hun
  • PHDAP
    Seah Shoo Chin (Allex Seah)
  • PNWAWASAN
    Albert Kok Boon Chang

N.20 Kota Laksamana

34,066 registered electors

  • PHDAP
    Low Chee Leong
  • BNMCA
    Melvin Chua Kew Wei
  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Ethan Lim Zhi Hao

N.21 Duyong

26,528 registered electors

  • PHDAP
    Poo Long Suan
  • BNUMNO
    Mohd Noor Helmy bin Abdul Halem

N.22 Bandar Hilir

23,042 registered electors

  • BNMCA
    Jasmine Lok Huey Yee
  • PHDAP
    Leng Chau Yen
  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Mohd Nor Rashidi bin Ab Jalil

N.23 Telok Mas

29,751 registered electors

  • PHAMANAH
    Mohamad bin Jaafar
  • BNUMNO
    Abdul Razak bin Abdul Rahman
  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Muhammad Hazwan bin Mustafa

N.24 Bemban

26,381 registered electors

  • BERSATUBERSATU
    Muhammad Rabaie bin Ab Hamid
  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Muhammad Solehin bin Saleh
  • PNWAWASAN
    Mohd Yadzil bin Yaakub
  • BEBASBEBAS
    Abd Halim bin Said

N.25 Rim

17,742 registered electors

  • PHPKR
    Esma Eazreen binti Husin
  • BNUMNO
    Khaidhirah binti Abu Zahar

N.26 Serkam

21,352 registered electors

  • BNUMNO
    Azman bin Abdullah
  • PHPKR
    Muhammad Faiq bin Azman (Along)
  • BERSAMABERSAMA
    Muhamad Saffie bin Md Yasan

N.27 Merlimau

19,759 registered electors

  • BNUMNO
    Muhamad Akmal bin Saleh
  • PHAMANAH
    Rahayu binti Hamzah

N.28 Sungai Rambai

16,043 registered electors

  • BNUMNO
    Jezlee bin Pit
  • PHAMANAH
    Aminuddin bin Abdul Jalil
  • BEBASBEBAS
    Norrizan bin Jantan

This is a dated research snapshot, not a real time feed. Check the linked election sources for withdrawals, corrections or later announcements. Candidate age is omitted because sources disagree on some entries.

E / THE SCENARIO LAB

Change an assumption.
See what follows.

An arithmetic sandbox for public analysis. These are hypothetical outcomes, not polling estimates, forecasts or advice for targeting voters.

Keeps the 2021 candidates and votes. This tests how that result responds to a shift; it does not predict the changed 2026 ballot.

A user assumption, not a turnout forecast. Each group starts here unless a lever sets its turnout.

Levers apply from top to bottom. Age and ethnicity within one lever mean their intersection. Overlapping vote transfers apply sequentially; the last turnout setting wins for overlapping groups. Each demographic cell is counted once. Where the source lacks an age breakdown, voters remain age unknown: ethnicity levers apply, but specific age levers do not.

HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO · NOT A FORECAST

Demographic composition does not tell us how a group voted. This model initially assumes the same party preference across groups within a seat, then applies only the shift you specify. The 2022 electorate profile is a proxy, not a verified 2026 roll.

Read the model and limitations

Start with candidate vote shares from 2021, or your manual starting weights restricted to the 2026 ballot. Transfer the selected percentage points from one ballot label to another inside the chosen group, capped at the donor’s available share.

The model divides each constituency into ethnicity by age cells using the source’s 2022 age distributions within each ethnic group. It applies each matching lever in order, then combines the cells using their electorate share multiplied by their assumed turnout rate. Rounded source tables mean these joint estimates can differ slightly from published overall age shares. Round only for display.

If either ballot label is absent in a seat, no transfer is made there. An exact tie remains a tie. Independents remain separate candidates and split the manual BEBAS weight equally. Unallocated ballots remain unresolved.

The baseline turnout defaults to an illustrative 70%, not an estimate. The manual model assumes common starting preferences across constituencies before restricting them to each ballot. It does not estimate local candidate appeal, demographic preferences, turnout levels, party transfers or uncertainty. Turnout alone has no effect on seat winners when all groups retain identical starting party preferences. Once vote shifts differ across groups, turnout changes their relative contribution.

F / ELECTION NIGHT

COMING SOON

The count.
When it is verified.

This section is reserved for election night results. No live feed is connected and no 2026 vote totals are being reported here.

Planned coverage: declared seats, source timestamps and constituency results. Partial counts will be identified separately from official declarations.

28seats awaiting results coverage
Follow BERNAMA’s election hub ↗

G / CHECK THE WORK

The evidence.
And its limits.

Figures should be traceable. Assumptions should be inspectable. A scenario should never quietly become a claim about what voters will do.

Election records

ElectionData.MY and Thevesh Thevananthan’s Malaysian Election Corpus. Candidate and constituency records are dedicated to the public domain under CC0.

Data catalogue ↗Dataset repository ↗

Coverage includes all 15 completed Melaka state general elections since 1959, nine recorded state by-elections and federal election records for Melaka since 1955. State and federal results are kept separate. Seats and alliances are shown as recorded at each election; no historical boundary harmonisation is implied. Election administration details should be checked with SPR.

IMPORTANT NOTICE

Independent analysis. Use with care.

This website is provided by Endry Lim for general information, education and public discussion. It is not an official election service and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Election Commission of Malaysia, any political party or any candidate. Views expressed here are personal and do not represent any employer or affiliated organisation.

Historical records and candidate information are drawn from the sources and dates identified on this page. Despite reasonable care, information may contain errors, omissions or delays and may change. No warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness, currency, availability or suitability for a particular purpose. Confirm election dates, candidate status, voting arrangements and official results directly with SPR.

Scenario outputs are hypothetical calculations based on user assumptions and simplified methods. They are not polls, predictions, guarantees or evidence of how any demographic group votes. They should not be relied upon as the sole basis for a decision. Nothing on this website constitutes legal, financial or other professional advice.

To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, Endry Lim and this website’s contributors disclaim liability for loss or damage arising from use of, inability to use, or reliance on this website, its data, scenario outputs or external links. Nothing in this notice excludes or limits liability that cannot lawfully be excluded or limited, or removes any rights or remedies protected by law.

External sources are independently operated and their inclusion does not imply endorsement. When sharing outputs, retain the source date, assumptions and hypothetical scenario label. To flag a possible error, contact Endry on LinkedIn with the relevant source.